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油价暴跌逾20%,产油巨头价格战一触即发!

第一财经 2020-03-19 05:25:41

国际油价周三暴跌逾20%,创下近18年来新低。沙特看似“抗跌”,俄罗斯财政对原油依赖更低。

随着新冠肺炎大流行持续抑制原油需求,加上投资者对全球经济衰退的担忧加剧,国际油价几乎跌至冰点。WTI原油周三暴跌23%,或6.43美元,至每桶20.81美元,为18年来的最低水平,这也标志着WTI原油创下了有史以来表现第三糟糕的一天。布伦特原油下跌14%,或4.02美元,报24.6美元,为2003年以来最低水平。

原油供需腹背受敌,油价还要往下走

体育彩票七星彩ZAIOPEC+JIANCHANXIEYIPOLIEHOU,GEGECHANYOUDAGUOWANRU“XIEXIAJIASUO”,ZAIZENGCHAN、JIANGJIAZHANLVEDEBUBUJINBIXIA,WTIYUANYOUHEBULUNTEYUANYOUZHENGBURUYOUSHIYILAIZUIZAOGAODEYUEFEN,JUNXIADIECHAOGUO46%。

“ZUIDADEWENTIZAIYUYUANYOUZAIGONGXULIANGFANGMIANDOUSHOUDAODAJI”,NENGYUANZIXUNGONGSIRystad EnergyDEFENXISHIDIKESEN(Louise Dickson)SHUODAO,“XIANZAIQUANQIUJINGJIHUODONGDOUZAIFANGHUAN,YIJINGDAFUYAZHIYUANYOUXUQIU,DANOPEC+DEJIANCHANQIXIANJIANGZHI,ZHEIYEYIWEIZHEXIANGSHATEHEELUOSIZHEIYANGDECHANYOUDAGUOYOUKEYISUIYIZENGCHANLE。YUANYOUXUQIUCONGWEIXIANGXIANZAIZHEIYANGPIRUO,TONGSHIQIYOU、YUNSHURANLIAO、SHIHUACHANPINYESUIZHEYUANYOUJIAGEBENGKUIERBENGKUI。”

体育彩票七星彩YUXIANQIANDEJINGJIDONGDANGSHIQI(BAOKUO2008NIANDEJINRONGWEIJI)BUTONG,XINGUANFEIYANDEZHANGQIYINGXIANGRENGSHIWEIZHIZHISHU。SUIZHEYUELAIYUEDUODESHICHANGGUANCHARENSHIYUCEMEIGUOJINGJIYANZHONGSHUAITUIGAILVDOUSHENG,YUANYOUJIAGEHUOMIANLINJINYIBUXIAXINGYALI。

KELISHUODAO:“ZHANWANGWEILAI,YUANYOUSHICHANGZULIZUIXIAODELUJINGMUQIANKENDINGSHIXIANGXIA,ERQIESHICHANGJIBENMIANMINGXIANKANDIE,ZHEIYIWEIZHEQUANQIUYUANYOUGONGJIKENENGHUIZHANGQICHUXIANGUOSHENG,YINCIBODONGSIHUJIANGCHIXUYIDUANSHIJIAN。”

原油价格战令油价雪上加霜

MUQIANSHIXINGDEOPEC +JIANCHANCUOSHIJIANGZAI3YUEDIDAOQI,SHICHANGYUQIZAIJIANCHANXIEYIJIESHUHOUGECHANYOUGUOJIANGHENKUAIZENGJIACHANYOULIANG。ZAIBENYUECHUOPEC+CHANYOUGUOZHIJIANDETANPANPOLIEHOU,SHATEYILVXIANXUANBUJIANGZAISIYUEFENJIANGRICHANLIANGCONGMUQIANDE1200WANTONGTIGAODAOCHUANGJILUDE1300WANTONG,YIJINYIBUYADIYOUJIA。XIANGBIZHIXIA,SHATEZAI2YUEFENDERICHANLIANGYUEWEI970WANTONG。SUIHOUALIANQIU、YILAKEHEKEWEITEYEGENSUISHATEJIAOBUDAQIJIAGEZHAN,ELUOSIZESHILINGYIGEKENENGZENGJIACHANLIANGDEOPEC+CHANYOUGUO。

Again CapitalDEJIERDAFU(John Kilduff)BIAOSHI:“SHATEYANRANCHENGLEYUANYOUSHICHANGDEZONGHUOFAN,TAKUAISUDEJIADACHANNENGWEIYUANYOUKONGTOUZENGJIALEWUJINDERANLIAO,YOUJIADUANQISIHUKANBUDAODI,WORENWEIWTIYUANYOUWEILAIJIANGDIEZHIMEITONG18.00MEIYUANZUOYOU。”

SUIZHESHIYOUJIAGEJIXUXIAHUA,OPECCHENGYUANGUOZHIYIDEYILAKEYIJINGDUNCUOPEC+ZAIDUJUXINGJINJIYUANYOUHUIYI。DANCONGELUOSIFANGMIANDETAIDULAIKAN,HUIYINANYITUIJIN。ELUOSIZAOQIANYIBIAOTAICHENG,DANGQIANYOUJIADEBAODIESHIYILIAOZHONGSHI,SHATEDEXINGDONGBUSHIMINGZHIZHIJU。ELUOSIMUQIANMEIYOUYUSHATEHUITANDEJIHUA。EZONGTONGPUJINGDEFAYANRENZHICHU:SHICHANGDUISHIYOUHENENGYUANJIAGEDECHIXUXIADIESHIYOUYUQIDE,WOMENYEZAIZIXIGUANCHAXINGYEQUSHI。JINGUANPUJINGMUQIANSHANGWUYUSHATELINGDAORENJUXINGTAOLUNDEJIHUA,DANZAIBIYAOSHIWOMENYEHUIKAOLVJUXINGHUITAN。

体育彩票七星彩ERQIESHATEBUJINJINJIHUATIGAORICHANLIANG,ZAIXINYOUTIANBUDUANKAIFADEQIANTIXIA,TAJIHUACONG5YUEQITIGAOYUANYOUCHUKOULIANGZHILISHIXINGAODE1000WANTONG/RI。SHATEYUELUOSIDE“YIYIGUXING”LINGYUANYOUSHICHANGDANXINZHEILIANGGECHAOJICHANYOUDAGUOHUIWEILEQIANGZHANSHICHANGFENEER“DADACHUSHOU”。

虽然沙特等海湾地区产油国生产成本普遍较低,看似在应对油价下跌时更“抗跌”,但有市场分析表明,俄罗斯在原油价格战中或许比沙特更占优势,这也让低油价的前景的影响更加深远。据摩根大通数据显示,2019年,只要油价达到51美元/桶,俄罗斯财政收支将能保持平衡,而沙特保持财政收支平衡所需的原油价格则为92美元/桶,约为俄罗斯的2倍。这也与俄罗斯政府自2015年油价暴跌以来采取的紧缩性财政政策有关。

CIWAI,SHATEDUISHIYOUDEJIAGEYILAIYAOGAOCHUHENDUO,ERQIESHATEZAI2015NIANCAIZHENGYUSUANYOUYINGZHUANKUIHOUMUQIANRENGWEINIUZHUANJUMIAN,DAOZHISHUBAIGEXIANGMUBEIZANTING,DUIDANGDIQIYEGOUCHENGYINGXIANG。

JIANYUJINNIANDEQINGXINGBI2008NIANDEQUANQIUJINRONGWEIJIGENGWEIYANZHONG,DEYINJIANGBULUNTEYUANYOUZAIDIERJIDUHEDISANJIDUDEJIAGEMUBIAOXIADIAOZHI25MEIYUAN/TONG。DANCONGMINGNIANQIYOUJIAJIANGZHUBUHUISHENG。

体育彩票七星彩GAOSHENGYEXIADIAOLEDIERJIDUDEYOUJIAYUQI,RENWEIWTIHEBULUNTEYUANYOUJIANGJIANGZHIPINGJUNMEITONG20MEIYUAN。GAOSHENGYUJIQUANQIUMEIRIDESHIYOUXUQIULIANGJIANSHAOLE800WANTONG。GAOSHENGDAZONGSHANGPINYANJIUQUANQIUFUZERENKELI(Jeffrey Currie)ZAIYIFENBAOGAOZHONGBIAOSHI:“ZHENGGEYUANYOUSHICHANGDEXUQIUXIAHUAYESHIQIANSUOWEIYOUDE。”

ZHADAYINXINGYUJIDIERJIDUBULUNTEYUANYOUDEDIDIAN“KENENGHUIYUANDIYU20MEIYUAN/TONG”,2020NIANPINGJUNSHIYOUXUQIUTONGBIJIANGXIAJIANG340WANTONG/TIAN。

责编:王蕾

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